India’s economic growth to slow down next year, but recession unlikely: Moody’s

Moody’s says that the pace of growth in India may be slow next year. The rating agency says that recession is not expected in the Asia Pacific region in the coming year.

Moody’s says that the pace of growth in India may be slow next year.

Moody’s says that the pace of growth in India may be slow next year. The rating agency says that recession is not expected in the Asia Pacific region in the coming year. According to Moody’s, however, the sector will face headwinds due to high interest rates and slow global trade growth. Moody’s said this in its analysis on Thursday, titled ‘APAC Outlook: A Coming Downshift’.

Why can there be a decline in growth?

According to the report, on the other hand, along with technology, investment in the agriculture sector and increase in production will also benefit. But, if high inflation persists, then the Reserve Bank of India will increase its repo rate beyond 6 percent, which may lead to a decline in GDP growth. In August, Moody’s projected India’s growth rate to decline to 8 per cent in 2022. The rating agency had projected growth to fall further to 5 per cent in 2023. The growth rate was 8.5 percent in 2021.

Moody’s said that the economy of the Asia Pacific (APAC) region is slowing and this trade-dependent region is facing the effects of slow global growth. Global industrial production remains at a healthy level. It reached its highest level in the month of February. This was the situation before the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Global growth will be affected due to Europe, America

Moody’s Analytics Chief APAC Economist Steve Cochrane said that China is not the only weak link in the global economy. He said that in Asia, India has also seen a decline in exports on an annual basis in the month of October. He says that at least India is less dependent on exports than China for growth.

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Looking at the regional outlook, Moody’s said, however, that along with India, other major economies in the Asia Pacific region are also expanding after the lifting of pandemic-related restrictions. However, 2022 will not be a good year for economic growth due to a troubled economy in China along with expectations of a slowdown in Europe and North America.