It is estimated that the growth rate in the fourth quarter may come down to 5.7 percent, before the growth was estimated at 6.1 percent in the first quarter.
Omicron will have an impact on growth
Economists’ biggest fears about Omicron in the domestic economy now seem to be coming true. It has been feared in a report that the new variant of Kovid will show its effect on the growth of the last quarter of the current financial year. Not only this, due to this, the GDP for the whole year can also be reduced as compared to the estimates. According to the report, the restrictions imposed due to the increasing cases of Kovid will have a bad effect on the recovery.
How much damage will Omicron do to the economy?
Domestic rating agency India Ratings and Research has said that due to Omicron, there may be an impact of 0.4 percent on the GDP for the January-March quarter. While the GDP for the whole year may decrease by 0.1 percent compared to the previous estimates, according to the rating agency, any restrictions imposed across the country such as reduction in the number of people coming to the markets, curfew at night or weekend economy But will make an impact. The agency said that due to the increase in the number of new cases in the last 15 days, the growth rate in the fourth quarter may come down to 5.7 percent, earlier the growth was estimated at 6.1 percent. The GDP growth for the full year is estimated to be 9.3 percent as against 9.4 percent earlier.
what a relief
The report has expressed relief that even though the spread of the new variant is being seen much faster, but early indications are showing that the effect of Omicron is not as dangerous as the second wave and its symptoms are also at a moderate level. In such a situation, there is a possibility that if the governments impose restrictions, then those restrictions will not be as strict as last year’s restrictions, so the economy will remain in motion. Even if its pace slows down a bit. According to the agency, the governments are now in better preparation than before, so it is expected that the effect of the third wave of Kovid will be less than the first and second wave of Kovid. At the same time, the agency expressed hope that with the second wave of Kovid coming to a halt, the recovery in the economy can also happen with the same speed.
HDFC Bank anticipates a decrease of 0.3 percent in Q4
HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abhik Barua feared that there may be an adverse impact of 0.30 percent on the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate for the March quarter in view of the increasing cases of Omicron. Along with this, India Ratings and economists are of a consensus that the Reserve Bank can keep rates stable next month in view of the third wave of Kovid.