Want to earn in the stock market this month, know what can be the direction of the market in July

What can be the direction of the market in July

Talking about the last 15 years, in the month of July, the Sensex has closed with a fall only 4 times. And even once the decline was not more than 5 percent. On the other hand, during this 6 times the market increased by more than 5 percent.

Indian selling of foreign investors Share Market (Stock Market) The wings are shearing. In the month of April, Nifty is 2 percent, in May 2.6% and in the month of June this decline has been about five and a half percent. Now on the one hand, economists and corporate world are expecting recovery in the economy with the help of Monsoon, on the other hand, there will be a return to the stock market in July, such hopes will be seen by investors.Investor) has tied up. The reason for this expectation is the past performance of the stock market. In fact, in the last several years, July has proved to be a month of growth for the market. At the same time, the year in which the loss has been seen in July, that loss has also been limited. This is the reason why investors are positive about the market, seeing the trend of growth in this month which clears the picture of monsoon in India.

How was the month of July in the market

Talking about the last 15 years, in the month of July, the Sensex has closed with a fall only 4 times… It has registered a loss of 3.44 percent in 2011, 1.11 percent in July 2012 and 0.26 percent in July 2013.

Whereas if we talk about the uptrend, 11 out of 15 years Sensex has given positive returns… that is, investors have made profits… during this 6 times it happened that the stock market increased by more than 5 percent in 1 month… 8.12 percent in July 2009 In 2020, 7.71 percent, in 2008, 6.64 percent return has been seen. These figures have expressed hope in the minds of investors that this time there will be an end to the despair in the stock market.

What is the biggest tension for the market

Now let’s have a look at what are the things that can become a hindrance to these historical figures… The biggest obstacle is the rising interest rates in America, due to which foreign investors can take their investment out of the risky market and into the safe, bond market. And now for 1-2 years they are not likely to come down rapidly, which remains the biggest threat to the stock market.

Apart from this, increasing uncertainty due to rising inflation, dwindling demand and the Russo-Ukraine war is now troubling domestic investors as well. Due to which mutual funds, which have been frequent buyers till now, are also preferring to sit on more cash instead of investing.

But in the midst of these hindrances, there is some news that gives some hope. For example, to beat rising inflation, the US can withdraw or reduce the tariffs that have been increased on Chinese products. But can also be seen.

what experts say

Market expert Arun Mantri says that 15,500 and 15,350 have become a strong support for Nifty and if Nifty crosses the level of 16,180 strongly, then levels up to 16,450 can be seen. 16,200 and 16,450 can prove to be the next big resistance. The minister says that if we study the future data of FIIs, it is found that FIIs are going in the futures of July with 15% long positions and 85% with short positions.

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Figures of FII in Derivatives Market as on 1st July 2022

futures index long futures index short future stock long future stock short option index call long option index put long option index call short option index put short
FII 25146 137079 1381163 891424 244545 403833 182196 230277

Light buy positions mean that downside downside is limited but any positive trigger can give the market an opportunity for a short covering rally. So the bottom line is that amidst all the apprehensions and worries, investors have not given up hope. Good monsoon in July, along with inflation, can also relieve the continuous fall in the stock market.